Bitcoin is now trading below $100,000, and a lot of traders ask themselves whether the cryptocurrency can return to its all-time high and whether they should buy it now. If you want to learn more and find out about alternative ways to trade Bitcoin and start making money right away, read this article.

What’s Happening with Bitcoin Right Now

The current situation in Bitcoin shows no signs of an upside breakout. After reaching local highs at $88,000, BTC slipped back to $80,000. Instead of focusing on six figures, Bitcoin is trying to hold its ground above these levels. 

It is important, as $120,000 is not the primary target. First, Bitcoin needs to recover the confidence. Buyers will have to reach $85,000 again and then push through $90,000, and only then will $100,000 be the next target. 

Institutional Investors Could Be the Deciding Factor

One of the biggest changes in the market structure is the increased role of institutional traders. Banks, funds, professional hedge firms, and corporate market participants now play a huge role in demand through ETFs and other products that are available for institutional investors. 

Recent reports show that US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $6.4 billion in August, while corporate participants purchased around $1.5 billion over the same period. In 2026, companies were among the strongest sources of buying. This shows that corporate participants have not vanished, but they have changed their shape. 

The bullish bias will become even stronger if inflows remain positive for several weeks. If these flows weaken, the price may resume its downside towards $70,000 and even $60,000.

Why Bitcoin ETF Flows Matter So Much

Exchange-traded funds provide exposure to the cryptocurrency to investors through brokerage accounts without managing cryptocurrency wallets. This, in turn, made Bitcoin more accessible to institutional investors but also created an important source of information about current investor sentiment. Therefore, by monitoring inflows and outflows, traders can check the market sentiment.

Keep in mind that a single inflow or outflow can’t create long-term trends. However, if an outflow or inflow continues for weeks, this may have a major impact on the cryptocurrency. Therefore, if ETF demand turns positive for November and December, the path towards $100,000 will be more realistic. But a jump to $120,000 will require more than just positive investor sentiment. 

When it comes to institutional investors that invested in Bitcoin through various tools, including ETFs, they include:

• SigFig Wealth Management. The fund invested around $73 million in 2026 and continues to hold their positions.
• Vanguard. The fund acquired Metaplanet (through ETF), a Japanese company owning Bitcoins.
• Strategy (former MicroStrategy) continues to hold around 848,000 BTC and continues to add the cryptocurrency to its portfolio.

The Fed as a Major Factor Influencing Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized network, but its price is highly dependent on traditional financial conditions. Some of the major factors that influence BTC price are interest rates, bond yields, economic conditions, and investors’ desire to hold volatile assets. Therefore, one of the key drivers this week will be the Fed and its decisions, as well as comments from Fed Chair Kevin Walsh and other voting members.

The Fed raised rates at its latest meeting on September 16, but the next hike in October is still under question. Now the question is whether the Fed will continue its tightening path through the rest of 2026 or whether they will decide to leave the rates on their current level and even discuss expansive measures.

The current US economic conditions do not support Bitcoin’s next rally. Higher inflation, which remains above the FOMC’s 2% target, prevents the Fed from taking supportive measures. The central bank prefers to avoid easing in times of price pressures. Moreover, the labor market and business activity allow the Fed to avoid fast decisions. BTC remains under pressure in these conditions as bond yields remain more attractive to traders and investors.

Can Bitcoin’s Limited Supply Push Prices Higher?

Bitcoin supply is limited to 21 million coins, which is a long-term supportive factor itself. The latest halving that took place in 2024 reduced the reward to 3.125, which, in turn, should be another supportive factor as new supply reaches the market at a slower pace. If more traders and investors want Bitcoin and the amount of available coins is limited, then prices may rise sharply. However, this is a long-term process, which supports BTC price over time, and the price is unlikely to surge in one day just because the supply is limited. 

Existing holders may sell, while institutional investors may rebalance their portfolios, which will vanish demand when financial conditions are worse. The halving is a structural feature of the whole network and not something that forces the uptrend by itself. Therefore, to reach $120,000 this year, the limited supply needs some other confluencing factors.

Price Levels to Watch This Year

When it comes to technical analysis, Bitcoin remains in the middle of the path to $120,000. Traders can get more useful information from charts by applying various methods. There are areas that may make market participants reassess their positions and rebalance their portfolios.

The 80,000-82,000 is among the most important demand zones so far, which acts as a long-term support. The next major area is located at 73,000-75,000. These two zones now hold Bitcoin from moving below.

On the upside, traders and investors should watch $90,000, which is a test of recovering momentum. If Bitcoin reaches $100,000, the momentum may accelerate, and the chances of reaching $120,000 this year will become more realistic. 

Factors that May Send Bitcoin to $120,000

We have already mentioned that halving alone and the limited nature of Bitcoin supply can’t push the price to its historical levels. Several positive developments should occur at once to see a major upside. Let’s put them all together:

• Bond yields stop climbing and decline.
• ETFs inflow increases drastically.
• The Fed announces the end of its tightening strategy (or at least refuses more rate hikes).
• The geopolitical situation stabilizes, and risk appetites increase.

These are the major factors that can help Bitcoin move to their next highs. Those who thought about further declines may go back to buying BTC and close their short positions. Momentum traders can enter right when the price makes another major upside. This will become a self-reinforcing rally. Higher prices will encourage another cycle of buying, which will push prices even higher in turn. Therefore, the best case for racing $120,000 isn’t just that Bitcoin becomes popular again. This is a combination of factors, including favorable macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions.

Factors that Could Hold BTC Below $100,000

The bearish scenario is still also possible. Bitcoin still remains below $100,000 due to several factors. First, global inflation is a major concern, which prevents central banks from switching from tightening policies to more accommodative ones. This, in turn, pushes bond yields higher and makes bonds more attractive than Bitcoin or even gold, which is a traditional safe-haven asset.

Therefore, traders and investors should watch both economic and geopolitical factors. If the situation remains the same until the end of the year, the next Bitcoin rally will be postponed, as no drivers will support an explosive demand. Should the situation become even worse, a sharp sell-off may occur, which will lead to downside breakouts of zones that we have outlined above

Three Realistic Scenarios for Bitcoin Price Movement

There are three scenarios that you should consider when trading Bitcoin this year. Let’s look at them closer:

• Bullish scenario. The price may reach $100,000 and even $120,000 if financial conditions improve and net ETF inflows increase. In this environment, BTC can reach its ATH even before Christmas, although moving there will still require some strong momentum. Analysts from Standard Chartered believe that BTC can reach ATH and even move higher before the year end. According to Bernstein, Bitcoin may reach even $150,000 in 2027.
• Neutral scenario. This is the most evident scenario for now. Bitcoin may remain close to current levels with sharp rallies and declines but without sustained breakouts. While the price may move towards $100,000, the $120,000 target will remain unreachable this year. This scenario is widely supported by Mike Alfred, who believes that Bitcoin can reach $100,000 in near term, Mike Novogratz (founder of Galaxy Digital), who also believes that the $100,000 target will be hit soon.
• Bearish scenario. This one will develop if the pressure below $80,000 resumes. This may happen if inflation worries remain in place and central banks will have to resume their tightening strategies and set even higher rates. Attention in this case will shift from historical highs to whether the market can set a durable bottom. The bearish scenario is widely supported by Peter Schiff, a famous Bitcoin critic, and Peter Brandt, who believes BTC is unlikely to hit its ATH even in 2027.

These are not exact forecasts, as things may change drastically. But their purpose is to demonstrate what should be changed for the outlook to become bullish or bearish. 

How to Make Money on Bitcoin Right Now?

Traders can make money on Bitcoin right now. To do that, they can use digital options, special contracts that allow market participants to benefit from predicting the direction of the trade.

If you expect Bitcoin to move above the current levels, you just buy a Higher contract. On the contrary, if you think that BTC will move below the current levels, you buy a Lower contract.

One of the ways to trade Bitcoin is to buy binary option contracts. In this case, you just need to predict whether the price moves above or below a certain level. No stop losses, no target forecasting. Simple guess the direction and make money. Here is how to start trading binary options with Binolla:

1. Go to the Binolla platform, sign in, and check your available funds. If you don’t have an account, register and deposit funds. It’s easy and quick and will take about 5 minutes in total.
2. Find Bitcoin among the assets on the platform.
3. Analyze the chart to forecast whether it will move higher and lower.
4. Set the investment amount.
5. Choose expiration time.
6. Press Higher or Lower depending on your forecasts.

The best part? You can catch even minor price fluctuations and see the results even within a minute! 

With binary options at Binolla, you don’t need to wait until the next major rally begins. You can benefit from each price movement. 

FAQ

Can Bitcoin realistically reach $120,000 in 2026?

Yes, it is still possible, but in current conditions, this will be challenging. Bitcoin should make about 50% from its current price to climb to those levels before December 31. A major improvement in market sentiment and investor demand will be necessary for this target to be reached.

What is the biggest obstacle for Bitcoin to climb to those levels?

A combination of factors, including geopolitical tensions and higher interest rates, prevents BTC from experiencing explosive growth. Traders and investors currently prefer safe-haven assets instead of buying Bitcoin and other risky instruments.

Would a move about $100,000 guarantee that Bitcoin may reach $120,000?

No, there is no guarantee that after $100,000 BTC will reach $120,000. However, chances of another upside towards the ATH will increase significantly. $100,000 is a round psychological number, and if Bitcoin breaks above it, more traders and investors are likely to join the rally.

Could the Fed policy help Bitcoin rally?

Yes, sure. If the Fed changes its rhetoric from hawkish to neutral, Bitcoin may change its direction. Should the Fed begin cutting rates, the movement will accelerate.

Can Bitcoin plunge lower from current levels?

Yes, sure. If the current situation in the Middle East develops, inflation pressure increases and central banks will have to hike rates again; BTC, together with other cryptocurrencies, may dive even deeper from current levels.