The US inflation data was just released, with yearly CPI slightly below the forecast (2.7% against 2.8%) and monthly inflation data within expectations. With the prices under control, the Fed is likely to react to the latest labor market data that was revised with a negative reading and demonstrated the weakness of this economic sector. About 90% of market participants expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 bps in September.

The US-Russia talks are another important factor to watch. Donald Trump will meet Vladimir Putin in Alaska. The outcomes of negotiations will definitely affect price fluctuations. A possible cease-fire and the deal may bring optimism to the financial markets.

Last but not least, the US-China deal was extended automatically by the US president without even reaching a new deal. There were a couple of crucial points that both sides failed to reach an agreement on, but the seeping tariffs were not imposed thanks to Donald Trump.

EUR/USD: Pressure Despite US Inflation Data

The currency pair is under pressure due to the weak ZEW economic sentiment data. The US-EU deal that was concluded in July contributed to the deterioration of the economic sentiment, especially in the pharmaceutical and chemical sectors. 

On the upside, the negotiations between the US and Russian leaders may lead to de-escalation, which will improve the market sentiment and support the risk appetites. Moreover, the automatic extension of the deal between the US and China favors EUR/USD buyers.

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From the technical analysis standpoint, the currency pair is trading close to the SMA50, demonstrating no dominance and a balance between buyers and sellers. On the upside, traders can buy the currency pair at 1.1670, targeting 1.1750 and 1.1800. On the downside, traders can go short if EUR/USD breaks below 1.1600, targeting 1.1540-1.1500.

GBP/USD: The Pound is Supported by Both UK Labor Data and US Inflation

According to the latest ONS (Office for National Statistics) data, the British economy created 239,000 new jobs in the second quarter of the year, which was well above the forecasts and supported the UK currency. When it comes to the unemployment rate, it remained at 4.7% as expected. The Claimant Count change declined by 6,200, which was also a positive factor for the British pound. 

As for the US dollar, it loses ground amid weaker inflation figures. This allows the fed to support the US economy by cutting rates in September, which is widely expected by the financial market participants.

The currency pair jumped above the SMA50 on the hourly chart, supported by strong UK fundamentals. Long positions will be preferable above 1.3500, targeting 1.3570-1.3600. On the downside, sellers can go short if the currency pair breaks below 1.3420, targeting 1.3350-1.3330.

XAU/USD: Risk Appetites Put Pressure on Gold

Gold remains under pressure amid growing risk appetites. They are stimulated by the extension of the US-China deal, upcoming US-Russia talks, and global positive market sentiment. In times of market optimism, gold stays under pressure, which is clearly seen currently on the chart.

On the US dollar side, the support to XAU/USD may come if market participants expect more rate cuts this year, as the one that is anticipated in September is already priced in. This week, some more important data from the US will come. First, PPI and then retail sales that will provide a clearer picture to the Fed. 

From the technical analysis perspective, gold remains below the SMA50, indicating a clear bearish domination. Short positions will be preferable from 3,340 targeting 3,300 and 3,280. On the upside, traders should wait for the precious metal to go beyond the SMA50 to find entry points there. 

WTI: Oil Prices Under Pressure on the Eve of the Trump-Putin Meeting

The rising supply from OPEC+ is not the only reason for oil prices to be under pressure. The upcoming meeting in Alaska between the presidents of the US and Russia also matters. If the two will be able to make a deal, the tensions will ease and more oil will reach the markets. Moreover, the new truce with China that will be discussed in 90 days will exclude the point about buying Russian oil. 

From the technical analysis standpoint, WTI is trading below the SMA50, pinpointing the bearish domination. However, the market shows low volatility as new drivers are expected. Buyers can engage above 63.60, targeting 65,70. On the downside, sellers can go short from 62.30, targeting 61,00.