13 May, 2025

US Dollar Moves Higher on the US-China Deal: What to Expect Next?

Binolla Blog Image - US Dollar Moves Higher on the US-China Deal: What to Expect Next? 1

Negotiations between the United States and China have concluded in a deal between the two sides. According to the outcomes that were announced on Monday, tariffs are cut by 115%. From now on, goods coming from China are subject to 30% tariffs in the United States, while goods coming from the United States are subject to 10% tariffs in Beijing. 

The deal is concluded for 90 days. The US president is going to continue negotiations with his Chinese counterparts for further de-escalation in the trade war between the two sides. The US dollar soared on Monday, but currently, the US currency has reached its peak. The next important thing to mention is that the Fed has postponed its rate decision. While it was expected that the Federal Reserve was going to cut rates at its June meeting, currently, the focus has shifted to September, which supports the US dollar as well.

EUR/USD: The Currency Pair Seems Fragile on Higher USD Demand

The currency pair plunged on Monday and is trading around 1.1100 at the time of writing. The general optimism on the trade deal between China and the United States pushed the US dollar higher. However, traders and investors are looking forward to seeing the results of the US CPI data. According to forecasts, yearly inflation in the United States is likely to stay at 2.4%. When it comes to monthly Core CPI is likely to grow to 0.3% in April, while monthly CPI is expected to reach the same 0.3% from -0.1% a month earlier. 

Trade negotiations between the US and the Eurozone are still ongoing. The European Commission launched a public consultation on countermeasures if trade talks fail and US tariffs remain in place.

The euro remains under pressure as the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates again this year. According to forecasts, the ECB is likely to cut rates again in June.

The currency pair remains below the SMA50 on Tuesday, which means that bears are controlling the market at this time. The closest support level is at 1.1100, from where you can sell targeting 1.1060 and 1.1000. On the upside, the currency pair stays below the SMA50, which plays the role of a dynamic resistance currently. Buying above the SMA50 will be a good solution.

GBP/USD: The UK Labor Market Data Puts Pressure on the Currency Pair

The British pound is trading under pressure after the release of the UK labor market data. According to the ONS, the unemployment rate increased by 4.5% from 4.4% during the three months ending February. The economy added 112K more workers, which is significantly below expectations. Slowing UK job growth reveals the fears among business owners related to US tariffs. When it comes to the Average Earnings data, its decline is also unfavorable for the British currency as it outlines the possibility of more easing this year, which will add pressure on the currency pair.

From the technical analysis perspective, the currency pair remains below the simple moving average of 50, which is a bearish signal. Traders can place sell orders below 1.3140 targeting 1.3100 and 1.3050. On the upside, the closest resistance is at 1.3200, from where traders can buy the currency pair targeting 1.3240 and 1.3300.

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WTI: Crude Oil Extends Its Gains on Tuesday Amid US-China Trade Deal

The trade agreement between the US and China has bolstered oil prices this week, as China is one of the biggest oil consumers. Higher tariffs put pressure on WTI, but when the deal was signed, fears of lower demand stepped back, leaving room for optimism. 

However, the upside is limited by the decision of the OPEC+ to increase oil output in June by 411,000. Moreover, the fact that the Fed has postponed rate cuts will support the USD and put additional pressure on WTI quotes.

Oil is trading above the SMA50, confirming the bullish sentiment. The closest resistance level is at 63,00 from where you can buy targeting 64,00. On the downside, if WTI moves below the SMA50, you can sell crude oil, targeting 62,50.

XAU/USD: Gold Retreats on Market Optimism About the Trade Deal

The trade deal between the United States and China injected optimism into the financial markets, which led to a downtrend in gold. The drop in trade barriers allowed the US dollar to gain momentum as it may help the US economy to avoid stagflation predicted by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. On the other hand, gold as a safe-haven asset is not in demand as market sentiment has shifted towards risky assets. 

Market participants are now looking forward to seeing the US consumer price data that will be released on Tuesday. 

Gold is trading below the SMA50 currently, which means that bears are controlling the market. On the downside, if gold breaks below 3200, traders can sell targeting 3180 and 3160. On the upside, if XAU/USD moves above the SMA50, you can buy targeting 3350.

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