The US Core PCE Price Index m/m will be released on Friday. According to forecasts, the indicator is unlikely to change as market participants expect it to show a 0.3% growth. This will allow the Fed to remain hawkish, as a higher inflation level leaves some space for the Federal Reserve to maintain its restrictive monetary policy.

Later developments on the Fed rate cut expectations show that the central bank is likely to make two monetary policy easing steps this year. The first one is still expected in June. However, the latest updates on tariffs, as well as data releases, may lead to an even one rate cut in 2025. 

EUR/USD: The ECB is Ready to Discuss Cut Rates or Pauses in April

According to the latest ECB comments, the central bank is ready to discuss rate cuts in the upcoming meeting that will take place in April. The European Central Bank has cut rates six times since June 2024. According to the central bank officials, they expect the Eurozone to tackle inflation this year, which will open them more space for monetary policy easing steps.

In her speech before the European Parliament Committee, Christine Lagarde testified that the inflationary pressure that was caused by the Trump-led trade war is a temporary factor that will ease in the medium term. The lower economic activity will damper inflationary pressure. 

From the technical analysis perspective, the currency pair is trading below the SMA50, which means that bears are currently controlling the market. The price is supported at 1.0800, which prevents it from moving to the next local low at 1.0780. On the upside, the currency pair targets the SMA50, which acts as the dynamic resistance level and prevents EUR/USD from moving to 1.0850.

GBP/USD: The British Pound Gains Momentum Amid the Latest Comments from Trump

The British pound is gaining support on the latest comments from Donald Trump, saying that many countries can avoid tariffs. This statement improved the positiokns of the US dollar first, but now market participants have turned the risk mode on, which caused an upside in GBP. 

The two main events for the British pound this week will take place on Wednesday. Together with the annual CPI data, traders will closely monitor the budget hearings. According to the previous comments from the UK Chancellor Reeves, no taxes will be raised, and the UK services sector will have to survive on its own. 

Consumer inflation is likely to diminish in this scenario, which will lead to another series of rate cuts by the Bank of England. Another important event to look at this week is the release of the yearly CPI data in the UK. According to forecasts, inflation is likely to have a minor downside twist from 3.0% to 2.9%. This may also exert pressure on the British pound.

On the technical side, the currency pair has managed to break above the SMA50, which means that bulls are taking control. However, as it was mentioned, this upside is limited due to the upcoming events that may give the Bank of England more confidence about further monetary policy easing steps.

The closest resistance level is at 1.2970, which protects the psychological level of 1.3000. On the downside, the currency pair is supported by the dynamic SMA50 level, which prevents it from falling to 1.2900 and lower.

XAU/USD: Gold’s Uptrend is Undermined

The latest positive news from the US and new negotiations between the US and Russia have undermined the Gold domination. Traders and investors are no longer buying the precious metal, and the general trend turns to downside. However, it is extremely important to watch the fundamentals as the current market mood is fragile, and any negative mood will push gold even higher to set new records.

According to the latest Trump’s comments, he can make several exemptions and even exclude several countries from his new tariff policies. Together with positive comments that come from the Oval Office about the negotiations between the United States and Russia, this news supports risky assets.

Gold remains above SMA50, but lower lows indicate that the general market mood has switched, and XAU/USD is likely to break below the simple moving average and send new local lows. The most important target for bears now is 3,000, which is a round psychological number that was a very strong resistance for a long time. On the upside, gold should break above 3,060 to resume the uptrend.

BTC/USD: Bitcoin Slides Higher as Market Mood Changes

Bitcoin has established new local highs recently and stepped back to the dynamic support level to gain more power and make another upside movement. General positive market mood supports the cryptocurrency as it has managed to break above 85,000. Currently, Bitcoin is targeting new highs on positive market sentiment. 

While there is no news on the Bitcoin reserve, the fact that the White House is ready to review its tariff strategy pushes risky assets and BTC higher. 

From the technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin has moved above 85,000 and is currently targeting 90,000. The currency pair stays above the SMA50, which is a confirmation of the bullish bias. If BTC/USD breaks above 90,000, the next target will be at 92,800 and then the round number of 95,000. On the downside, Bitcoin is supported at 85,000.