The FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released on Wednesday this week. The Fed decided not to cut rates during the last meeting. However, market participants are looking forward to seeing some guidance from the central bank’s officials about the future monetary policy decisions. The Fed has chosen the wait-and-see strategy, which means that the Federal Reserve is more likely to leave the rates unchanged at its June meeting. 

According to the latest comments from Minneapolis Fed Head Neel Kashkari, he supports the stance to maintain interest rates until there is more clarity about the impact of tariffs on inflation and the economy in general. 

EUR/USD: The Euro Retraces on Dovish ECB and Progress in US-EU Talks

The currency pair retraces from its local highs as the US dollar strengthens on a potential deal between the United States and the European Union. The EU officials have asked domestic business owners to submit their investment plans in order to speed up the negotiations and the deal.

EUR/USD is under selling pressure after the release of the French Consumer Price Index. The inflation pressure is cooling down in this country, which means that the European Central Bank can take more aggressive steps. According to ECB officials, a 0.6% inflation rate looks very encouraging. They also mentioned that policy normalization has not been done yet.

From the technical analysis perspective, the currency pair stays below the SMA50, which means that bears have taken control recently. The current price forms a kind of flag, and traders can go short when the currency pair breaks below 1.1340. Buy Stop orders can be placed above 1.1380, targeting current local highs.

GBP/USD: BoE Hawkish Bets, the British Pound Loses Ground

The British currency lost ground on Tuesday despite stronger economic data. All eyes are now on the US dollar, negotiations between the US and its main trade partners, as well as the US economic outlook. According to many Fed officials, the US economy may face a so-called “stagflation”, a situation where economic growth is slow and inflation is high, which will prevent the Fed from taking active steps to stimulate the economy.

On the other hand, negotiations that the United States conduct with its main trade partners support the US dollar. Moreover, uncertainty around the next dovish step by the Fed helps the US dollar recover. 

However, the local strength of the world’s reserve currency is undermined due to the uncertainty around negotiations between the US and Japan, China, and other trade partners. While the United States have postponed their tariffs against the European Union, market participants have fears about what will happen after 90 days.

The currency pair stays below the SMA50, which indicates the downtrend. However, GBP/USD is testing the moving average, and if it breaks the resistance level, the uptrend may resume. On the downside, traders can place sell stop orders below 1.3520. If the price moves above 1.3560, market participants can buy the currency pair.

WTI: Black Gold Is Under Pressure Ahead of the OPEC+ Meeting

Crude oil prices remain in a tight range ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. According to the latest rumors, the cartel is likely to increase the output by 411,000 barrels per day. However, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander mentioned that there is still no agreement on an output increase.

Another factor pushing oil prices down is the negotiations between the US and Iran on the nuclear deal. According to the US officials, the negotiations are constructive, which means that the deal can be reached. 

However, oil downside can be limited as tensions between the US and their trade partners are de-escalating. This means that global demand may rise if the deal will be reached.

From the technical analysis prospects, WTI is trading slightly below the SMA50, which means that the balance between bulls and bears is reached. Traders can place sell stop orders below 60.90. When it comes to buy stop orders, market participants can place them above 61.60.

Bitcoin Edges Lower on Positive USD

Bitcoin is trading close to 110,000 on a stronger USD. The US currency is getting support from negotiations between the United States and their main trade partners. Moreover, the dollar is on the positive track due to the wait-and-see policy by the Fed. The FOMC is unlikely to cut rates during its June’s meeting. However, the central bank is expected to ease the monetary policy twice this year and according to the latest forecasts, the first rate cut is likely to take place in September.

From the technical analysis perspective, BTC/USD is trading slightly above the SMA50, but the currency pair tests this level at the moment. Traders can buy above 110,000, while short positions will be preferable if BTC/USD moves below 107,500