The labor market data in the United States will be among the key indicators to watch this week. While the unemployment rate is expected to remain intact, Non-Farm Employment Change is likely to plunge from 151,000 to 139,000, which will definitely have an impact on major assets. 

The US labor market is in focus currently due to the fact that the Fed is closely monitoring the economic stance in the United States. Market participants await recession, which can be caused by tariffs and trade wars, which means that the Federal Reserve is likely to be more aggressive in cutting rates. However, the rising inflation is among the key factors that prevent the Federal Open Market Committee from making dovish decisions.

EUR/USD: The Market Assess Possible Consequences of New Tariffs

The Eurozone HCIP rose by 2.2% in March after increasing by 2.3% in February, while the core HCIP in Eurozone rose by 2.4% against 2.5% in February. However, this data remains undervalued as market participants are watching new comments and steps by the US administration.

According to ECB Head Christine Lagarde, the European economy may lose up to 0.5% of its economic growth due to tariff wars. This put EUR/USD under pressure as the EBC will likely make further easing steps. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has revised its forecasts about the potential recession in the US from 20% to 35%, which can support the currency pair as the Fed is likely to act accordingly to stimulate economic growth in the United States.

According to IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva, new reciprocal tariffs by Donald Trump increase uncertainty in the financial markets. Moreover, she underlined that fears of recession will dominate in the near future. However, the IMF managing director has also mentioned that she sees no dramatic impact from tariffs slapped and threatened by Trump.

From the technical analysis view, EUR/USD is trading below the SMA50, which means that bears are controlling the market. However, the currency pair is close to this line telling that both sides are close in their battle. The RSI is neutral. The closest support is at 1.0800, which is a round psychological level. It prevents the currency pair from moving lower and reaching 1.0760. On the upside, the SMA50 protects targets above with the closest resistance at 1.0830.

GBP/USD: The Pound Remains Cautious Ahead of the US “Liberation Day”

Famous for his poetic rhetoric, the US president has already named the 2nd of April “Liberation Day”. The idea is that this day the White House administration imposes tariffs on cars and other sectors as well as announces further measures against US trade counterparts. According to the latest rumors, the US administration will impose larger tariffs on countries that have a significant surplus in trade relations with the United States.

Now that the tariffs are almost live, market participants shift focus to how trade partners will respond. The British government mentioned previously that they are not eager to impose reciprocal tariffs and are open to dialogue. 

The economic calendar in the UK is almost empty this week, while that of the United States is full of events, including the NFP data that will be released on Friday. Along with these statistics, traders and investors should also pay attention to ISM manufacturing and services PMIs that may shake the markets as well.

The currency pair is trading slightly below the SMA50, which means that sellers have an advantage, but it is not enough at this moment to push the Pound lower. On the downside, we have 1.2900 as the closest support level, which prevents the currency pair from moving to 1.2860. On the upside, the SMA50 acts as a dynamic resistance level, preventing the currency pair from reaching 1.2960.

WTI: Oil is in High Demand After Trump’s Comments on Russian Oil and Iran Nuclear Program

Crude oil prices moved above 71.00 on new threads from the US administration. According to Sunday’s speed by the US president, he is planning to impose trade tariffs of 25-50% as secondary sanctions against countries that buy oil from Russia if he sees that Moscow blocks US initiatives on bringing peace in Europe. 

Another supportive factor for WTI is the situation in the Middle East. Donald Trump threatens Iran with bombing and secondary tariffs if the country’s administration refuses to come to an agreement with the US over the nuclear program. Both factors may reduce the oil supply and, consequently, push the oil prices even higher. 

However, fears of a global recession still act as a restrictive factor, preventing WTI from making a huge upside leap. The economic downturn in China, in particular, may reduce oil demand and lead to a downtrend in the energy market.

The technical analysis perspective indicates a strong uptrend as the price is above the SMA50. This trend may continue further due to fundamental reasons. The next target will be at 72.00. On the downside, WTI is supported by the SMA50, which acts as a dynamic support level. The SMA50 prevents the quotes from reaching 69.40.

XAU/USD: Gold is Supported by Rising Global Instability

Gold reaches new all-time highs in response to the rising global economic instability. New tariffs by Donald Trump will be announced soon. Moreover, the upcoming “Liberation Day” that will unleash the unprecedented sectoral tariffs brings even more fears to financial markets. 

On the technical analysis side, Gold is trading close to its record value after hitting 3,150, which is a new important level for traders and investors since. The precious metal still fluctuates above the SMA50 marking the dominance of buyers. On the downside, after breaking the dynamic support level, Gold is likely to hit 3100, while on the upside, the resistance level at 3150 prevents the precious metal from setting new historical highs.