05 Mar, 2024

US Labor Market Data, ECB, and BOC Meetings in Focus: What to Expect from This Trading Week 

US Labor Market in Focus: Discover all the key fundamentals for the week ahead
US Labor Market in Focus: Discover all the key fundamentals for the week ahead

The upcoming week is rich in various events that may bring significant volatility and trading volumes. The main event to watch in the coming days is the US labor market data that will be released on Friday. 

The non-farm employment change is likely to demonstrate the negative dynamics. Economists expect the indicator to slide to 190K from 353K which was set during the previous data release. As for the unemployment rate, it is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%.

Finally, average hourly earnings are likely to drop to 0.2% from 0.6% which was marked during the previous release.

The labor market in the United States suffers from higher interest rates. However, the unemployment rate stays within the target levels set by the Fed. 

Fed Chair Powell is going to testify this week in front of the US Congress. The head of the FOMC is likely to show a willingness to take rates out of restrictive areas once the Federal Open Market Committee sees that the inflation data is stable for at least six months. 

Other important sets of data from the United States this week include the unemployment rate and Average Hourly Earnings m/m. The unemployment rate is likely to stay unchanged at 3.7%, while hourly earnings are expected to fall from 0.6% to 0.2%.

The BOC Meeting

The Bank of Canada steering committee is going to meet on Wednesday, March 6. According to the forecasts, the officials are likely to leave the overnight rate unchanged at 5.00%. It is recommended to watch the press conference to understand the main trends in the BOC policy for the upcoming meetings.

The policymakers do not expect inflation to reach the 2% benchmark until 2025. However, cooling growth may make the BOC voting members undertake steps even before the inflation reaches the targeted levels. Currently, there is a high correlation between rate-cut expectations in Canada and the United States.

The ECB Meeting

The ECB meeting is considered among the major price movers this week. According to forecasts, the policy will remain unchanged. However, central bankers can lay the ground for the June’s rate cut. The latest data from the Eurozone was soft and inflation has slowed down. The officials will continue to monitor the situation with consumer prices before making any further decisions. If their risk assessment will be mentioned as “balanced” then this can be considered as a strong signal to cut rates.

EUR/USD Charts

The EUR/USD currency pair is traded within a range with the resistance level at 1.0858. Traders can wait for clear reversal signals to buy Lower contracts or sell the currency pair. The closest target below will be 1.0798. 

When it comes to 5-minute charts, EUR/USD stays below the descending trendline, which is another confirmation of the probability to move lower. There is an intermediate support level at 1.0838, where the currency pair may head in the following hours. All these downside scenarios will be canceled if EUR/USD breaks the descending trendline and 1.0858, which may open the way to the next resistance level at 1.0886.

USD/CAD Charts

USD/CAD move higher along the local trendline. The currency pair has surpassed 1.3581 and the next target on the hourly chart is 1.3592, which is the closest resistance level. 

The 5-minute chart confirms the uptrend as the price moves along the ascending trendline. USD/CAD is close to 1.3592. If the currency pair breaks this resistance level, the next target will be at 1.3601. This scenario will be canceled if USD/CAD breaks below the ascending trendline and the support level at 1.3581.

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